1. Introduction
Dengue fever is a critical feverish illness caused by mosquito-borne dengue
fever viruses (DENV) [1], which are Flaviviridae flaviviruses. When an infected
Aedes aegypti mosquito infects a person, many viruses are transmitted. The
transmission of the dengue virus is mostly carried out by humans. A
virus-infected mosquito feeds on the blood of a virus-infected person. The virus
spreads to tissues such as the duct gland from the mosquito’s gut in 8–10 days.
The virus appears to have no negative influence on the mosquito. When a
DENV-carrying mosquito bites a human, both the virus and the mosquito’s
secretions are injected into the skin. As it circulates throughout the body, it
clings to and enters white blood cells, multiplying in them. White blood cells
produce a number of signal proteins in response, including interferon, which can
lead to symptoms including fever, flu-like symptoms, and excruciating pains.
A variety of organs, including the liver and bone marrow, are regularly damaged
by serious infections. They also increase the body’s production of viruses and
frequently cause fluid to leak from the circulation into internal organ cavities
via the membranes of tiny blood vessels. As a consequence, blood pressure drops
to a level where many organs are unable to get enough blood due to decreased
blood flow in the blood vessels. The other major effect of dengue fever is
bleeding, which was made more likely by bone marrow diseases that decreased the
quantity of platelets needed for effective blood coagulation [2].
We provide an associative model that supports the
susceptible-infective-recovery-susceptible (SIRS) in the human population and the
susceptible-infective (SI) in the vector (mosquito) population while avoiding
delays in a trial to examine the dynamics of infection across considerable time
periods when susceptible people are born and immunity is lost. Because of vector
dynamics, the vector population is typically regarded as being in equilibrium
with the human population [3, 4]. The analysis of the delay differential equation
in the epidemic model was studied in [5, 6, 7]. The transmission process between
humans and mosquitoes takes a long time because of the different parasites’
incubation times [2, 8]. The dynamics of dengue virus transmission with a delayed
SIVA model are studied in [9]. Sefidgar et al. [10] discussed the
nonlinear system of fractional differential equations that appear in a model of
HIV infection of CD4+T cells and proposed the LAM for solving the system. The
results showed the effectiveness and efficiency of the method. Wei et
al. [11] developed a system for a vector-borne disease with a direct method of
transmission, but they also showed how the addition of a latency inside the
host-to-vector transmitter term will make the system unstable and cause periodic
solutions through Hopf bifurcation.
Omame et al. [12] formulated a mathematical model for the co-infection,
COVID-19 and dengue transmission dynamics with optimal control and
cost-effectiveness analysis. The results showed that the strategy for
implementing control against incident dengue infection is the most cost-effective
in controlling dengue and COVID-19 co-infection. Omame et al. [13]
design a non-integer ordered model for SARS-CoV-2, dengue, and HIV co-dynamics to
assess the impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection on the dynamics of dengue and HIV
through fractional derivatives. They showed, using numerical simulations, that
keeping the spread of SARS-CoV-2 low would have a significant impact on reducing
the co-infections of SARS-CoV-2 and dengue or SARS-CoV-2 and HIV. Based on
SIRS-SI in the human and vector populations, Wan and Cui [14] presented a model
that utilized two latencies for communication between humans and vector
populations with the standard incidence rate, loss of immunity, and rate of
recovery from infectiousness. To explore the possibility of equilibrium stability
and dynamic behavior, Xu and Zhou [15] projected the dynamics of delayed
vector-borne transmission with reinfection. An epidemic model with vaccination
and numerous time delays is taken into account in [16] along with the stability
and Hopf bifurcation analysis. Baleanu and Babak [17] studied a terminal value
problem for nonlinear systems of generalized fractional differential equations
and formulated a classical operator and a related weighted space with a
generalized fractional operator. The results showed the effects of various
choices of weight function on modeling with a TVP. Nowadays, many authors do
their research on epidemic models [18, 19, 20] with various strategies. To take
into consideration the amount of time required for a viral infection to spread to
host and vector populations, Yanxia et al. [21] design an associated
upgraded vector-borne epidemic model with two latency periods and reinfection. We
created a new model using the information in this article and included three new
parameters, including loss of immunity, recovery from infectiousness, and partial
protection of the human population.
In this paper, the basic reproduction number for the developed model was
determined, and the existence of equilibrium was also examined. The aim of the
paper is to explore the stability and Hopf bifurcation of a dynamic model of
dengue transmission that incorporates two delays. The numerical simulations were
described, and the main conceptual outcomes were exhibited. Fig. 1 provides a
schematic overview of this model.
Fig. 1.
Schematic diagram of dengue transmission.
2. Model Formulation
The model considers a uniform mix of human and mosquito populations, ensuring
that every mosquito bite provides the same possibility of spreading the virus (or
transmitting the virus from an infected human). Because mosquitoes cannot recover
from infection, their infection period ends when they die, owing to their
incredibly short lifespan. As a result, the mosquito population has a relatively
low immunity class, and mortality rates are comparable across all categories.
(t) represents the whole human population at time t, which is divided into
three compartments: susceptible humans (t), infectious humans (t), and
recovered humans (t). So, the entire human population is (t) = (t)
+ (t) + (t).
Similarly, (t) represents the whole mosquito population at time t, which is
divided into two compartments: susceptible vector (t) and infectious vector
(t). So, the entire vector population is (t) = (t) + (t).
Assumptions of the model:
(a) The human and vector total population sizes are considered to be constant. It is
expected that new humans will enter the human population at any time at
rate through birth or immigration, and those susceptible
mosquitoes will be recruited at a constant rate .
(b) Depending on the sickness, people shift from one class to another as their
health improves. This infusion is not contagious since there is no vertical
transmission or immigration of affected persons. When the Aedes aegypti
mosquito bites the host, all people get infected, and dengue development begins.
(c) Natural death occurs at a rate of and [21] (according to their
limited life span) for all humans and mosquitoes respectively, regardless of
condition.
(d) Individuals who have recovered in the human population acquire partial immunity
() or loss of immunity () [21].
(e) Illness mortality rates for humans and mosquitoes are and
, respectively.
(f) The term and is the human and mosquito
survival rate [22].
(g) Mosquitoes do not die or become infected by infection.
The system of non-linear differential equations for the dengue model is
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
with the following initial conditions:
(6)
The systems Eqn. 1 to Eqn. 5 is reformulated as
(7)
The parameters of the above system Eqn. 7 is described in Table 1.
Table 1.Parameters of the model.
Parameter |
Description |
|
the rate of human recruitment population |
|
the rate of mosquito recruitment population |
|
infection rate from mosquitoes in humans |
|
infection rate from humans in mosquitoes |
|
the natural death rate of the human population |
|
the natural death rate of the vector population |
|
the illness-induced death rate of the human population |
|
the illness-induced death rate of the mosquito population |
|
the biting rate of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes per day |
|
the individual rate of recovery for a class susceptible to infection |
|
recovery rate of the infected human population |
|
partial immunity for people who have recovered from the initial illness |
|
individual rate of immune loss in the human population |
|
extrinsic incubation period of time delay from susceptible to infectious class in populations of humans |
|
intrinsic incubation period of time delay from susceptible to infectious class in populations of mosquitoes |
3. Model Analysis
3.1 Positivity and Boundedness Solution of Dengue Transmission
Dynamic Model
The solution of the system Eqn. 7 is usually positive for positive initial values
of the data at all times t 0. Especially, the feasible region is
— , , 0, 0,
0}.
Theorem 1
The feasible region — , , 0, 0, 0} is positively-invariant for the system Eqn. 7.
Proof
According to [23, 24], it is easy to show that the solution of the Eqns. 1 to 5
with the initial conditions Eqn. 6 is distinct and nonnegative for all t 0,
based on the fundamental theory of differential equations.
From Eqns. 1 to 3, the rate of change of whole human population is given by
(8)
Without loss of generality, this equation can be expressed as an inequality as
Then, .
Therefore, (t) is bounded.
From Eqns. 4 to 5, the rate of change of whole mosquito population is given by
(9)
Without loss of generality, this equation can be expressed as an inequality as
Then, .
Therefore, (t) is bounded.
By limits theorem, holds for all t .
Then for any, 0, .
Similarly, .
Thus, the region — , , 0, 0, 0} is positively-invariant for the system (Eqn. 7).
3.2 Basic Reproduction Number of the Model
The illness-free equilibrium, = {,,} is the
model’s steady state in the lack of infection or illness. All the components of
are determined from the first three equations of system Eqn. 7 by putting the
RHS equal to zero and assuming that = 0 and = 0, where
and refer to the equilibrium points.
Thus,
(10)
The next generation matrix technique, as designated by Diekmann et al.
[25], was used to determine the basic reproduction number .
From system Eqn. 7, the illness states A and the transfer states B are given by
A= and B= respectively.
Using Jacobian matrix, the partial derivatives of A and B with respect to
and at the illness-free equilibrium Eqn. 10, are given by
F = and V =
Now the next generation matrix F can be calculated as
(11)
The eigenvalues of Eqn. 11 are used to derive the basic reproduction number, which is
(12)
3.3 Endemic Equilibrium Existence of the Model
The endemic equilibrium , is the model’s stable state in which the illness
continues. All the components of are obtained from the system Eqn. 7 by framing
the right - hand side equal to zero.
Thus,
(13)
where
=
=
is the positive root of the quadratic equation shown below
(14)
where
= []()+
[)]
[+]
=
[()+
()]
()[2+]
[2()+()]
[+()]
= (+)+ [(1+)])()
= and = be the roots of Eqn. 14.
Clearly, we have 0, 0 and 0 if 1, and 0, 0 if
1. It is obvious that and are negative roots if 1, and that
is positive roots if 1. The following result is drawn from the
relationship between the roots Eqn. 14 and the equilibrium of model Eqn. 7.
“If 1, then the system (Eqn. 7) holds illness-free equilibrium . If
1, then the system (Eqn. 7) holds illness-free equilibrium and an endemic
equilibrium ”.
4. Stability analysis and Hopf Bifurcation
Theorem 2
For , 0, illness-free equilibrium is
locally asymptotically stable if 1 and is unstable if 1.
Proof
The Jacobian matrix of the system Eqn. 7 at is
The characteristic equation of Eqn. 15 is given by
One negative eigen value is and the remaining eigen
values of the characteristic equation are
(17)
Where
The quadratic equation is the same in the ODE case for = = 0. In that case, the real component of every eigenvalue of the
characteristic equation is already negative. The Hurwitz criterion states that
when = = 0, the illness-free equilibrium at
1 is locally asymptotically stable, however, when 1, it is
unstable.
Let us first consider 1. It is simple to demonstrate that Eqn. 17 has a
real positive root. Rearranging Eqn. 17 in the form
Suppose is real. From Eqn. 18, the LHS and RHS are denoted by
and respectively. We have = 0 and
= .
Here, is a decreasing function of
As a result, Eqn. 17 has a non-negative real root for any 0 and
0, and the illness-free equilibrium is destabilizing.
Hence is locally asymptotically stable in system Eqn. 7 if 1 and is
unstable if 1.
Theorem 3
For = = 0, the endemic equilibrium is locally
asymptotically stable if 1 and is unstable if 1.
Proof
The Jacobian matrix of the system Eqn. 7 of is
The characteristic equation of Eqn. 19 is given by
(20)
where
When = 0 and = 0
The characteristic Eqn. 20 becomes
(21)
where, , ,
According to the Routh-Hurwitz criterion, the roots of the
characteristic Eqn. 21 does not have a positive real part if and only if the
coefficients of are non negative and matrix 0, for . From this 0.
Hence the endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when = = 0.
Theorem 4
For 0 and = 0, the endemic equilibrium is
locally asymptotically stable if 1 and is unstable if 1 [26, 27].
Proof
When 0 and , the characteristic Eqn. 20 becomes
(22)
where , , , , and
Suppose that , 0 then
the Eqn. 22 becomes
(23)
It follows that
(24)
Denote in in Eqn. 24
(25)
(26)
where , ,
It is easy to get that has two roots and
Clearly, if 0, 0 and 0, then Eqn. 26 has a negative real root. As a
result, Eqn. 22 has negative real parts and has no pure imaginary roots.
Suppose that Eqn. 26 has positive root . A pair of imaginary roots
(), appear in the characteristic Eqn. 22. Let = + be the
eigenvalues Eqn. 22 for a certain starting value of the bifurcation parameter
then we have , .
Denote = , n = 0, 1, 2, …. Where
From Eqn. 23, we get
sin () =
cos () =
The following transversality condition also verified.
holds.
By continuity, when and the real part of
turns positive, the steady state is unstable. Furthermore,
the Hopf bifurcation occurs when reaches the crucial value in
[23]. When = 0, , the
equilibrium is asymptotically stable. However, if remains in a
certain right neighbourhood of , the equilibrium becomes
unstable.
Hence, the Hopf bifurcation occurs when .
Theorem 5
For = 0 and 0, the endemic equilibrium is
locally asymptotically stable if 1 and is unstable if 1. Hopf
bifurcation occurs when , at the equilibrium of
the system Eqn. 7.
Proof
When and 0, the characteristic Eqn. 20 becomes
(27)
where , , , , and
Suppose that , 0 then the Eqn. 27 becomes
(28)
It follows that
(29)
Denote in Eqn. 29
(30)
Let
then Eqn. 30 is
(31)
It is easy to get that has two roots = and =
Clearly, if 0, 0 and 0, then Eqn. 31 has negative real roots. Hence,
Eqn. 27 has negative real parts and does not have any pure imaginary roots.
If we assume that Eqn. 31, , and are three positive roots, then
= , = and = are three positive numbers.
From Eqn. 28
cos =
Denote
and = , ,
where is corresponds to .
Let = + be
the eigenvalues of the characteristic Eqn. 27 satisfying , .
From Eqn. 27, we get =
where,
Therefore, Re =
If then Re hold.
If and the is asymptotically stable
when .
Hence, the Hopf bifurcation occurs when .
5. Numerical Simulations
Theorems 2, 3, 4, and 5 explore the stability of an endemic equilibrium, which
is important from an epidemiological perspective. The parameter values of the
model is showed in Table 2 (Ref. [3, 21]).
Table 2.Parameter and values of the model.
Parameter |
Value |
Source |
|
9 |
Yanxia et al. [21] |
|
10 |
Yanxia et al. [21] |
|
0.002 |
Yanxia et al. [21] |
|
0.005 |
Yanxia et al. [21] |
|
0.01 |
Yanxia et al. [21] |
|
0.05 |
Yanxia et al. [21] |
|
0.05 |
Hui, Jing-An [3] |
|
0.1 |
Hui, Jing-An [3] |
|
0.3 |
Yanxia et al. [21] |
|
0.08 |
Hui, Jing-An [3] |
|
0.2 |
Assumed |
|
0.8 |
Yanxia et al. [21] |
|
0.02 |
Assumed |
By Theorem 3, when , the stability of the endemic
equilibrium (267.781, 210.142, 196.792) is converging towards being locally
asymptotically stable (Fig. 2). It is tougher to control the disease as
and dengue fever persists in both human and vector populations.
Fig. 2.
When = = 0, of the system Eqn. 7 is
locally asymptotically stable. (a) The force of the susceptible
population converges to the positive equilibrium value = 267.781. (b) The
force of the infected population converges to the positive equilibrium value
= 210.142. (c) The force of the infected vector converges to the positive
equilibrium value = 196.792. (d) Phase diagram of
.
When 0, 0, the stability of the endemic equilibrium
(339.886, 180.022, 183.872) is converging towards locally asymptotically
stable (Fig. 3). As is obtained, dengue fever disappears in
both the human and vector populations, making it simpler to stop the disease’s
spread.
Fig. 3.
When 0 and 0, of the system
Eqn. 7 is locally asymptotically stable. (a) The force of the susceptible
population converges to the positive equilibrium value = 339.886. (b) The
force of the infected population converges to the positive equilibrium value
= 180.022. (c) The force of the infected vector converges to the positive
equilibrium value = 183.872. (d) Phase diagram of
.
By Theorem 4, if = 32.8 and = 0, the stability of the
endemic equilibrium (333.986, 188.115, 196.753) is converging towards being
locally asymptotically stable (Fig. 4). Dengue fever is more difficult to control
as and the human and vector populations remain infected. If
32.8 and = 0, the stability of the endemic equilibrium
is diverging towards instability and its loses stability as
passes through , leading to a Hopf bifurcation
(Fig. 5).
Fig. 4.
When = 32.8 and = 0,
of the system Eqn. 7 is locally asymptotically stable. (a) The force of the
susceptible population converges to the positive equilibrium value
= 333.986. (b) The force of the infected population converges to the
positive equilibrium value = 188.115. (c) The force of the infected
vector converges to the positive equilibrium value = 196.753. (d) Phase
diagram of .
Fig. 5.
of the system Eqn. 7 is unstable and a Hopf bifurcation
occurring in and . (a) The force of
the susceptible population diverges to the positive equilibrium. (b) The force of
the infected population diverges to the positive equilibrium. (c) The force of
the infected vector diverges to the positive equilibrium. (d) Phase diagram of .
By Theorem 5, if = 0 and 36.9, the stability of the
endemic equilibrium is diverging towards instability, resulting in a
bifurcation when passes upon (36.8) (Fig. 6). If
= 0 and = 37, the stability of the endemic equilibrium
(280.148, 197.053, 180.947) is converging towards being locally
asymptotically stable (Fig. 7). As is obtained, dengue fever
disappears in both human and vector populations, making it simpler to stop the
disease’s spread.
Fig. 6.
When = 0 and = 36 , the system Eqn. 7 is unstable and a Hopf bifurcation occurring. (a)
The force of the susceptible population diverges to the positive equilibrium. (b)
The force of the infected population diverges to the positive equilibrium. (c)
The force of the infected vector diverges to the positive equilibrium. (d) Phase
diagram of .
Fig. 7.
When = 0 and = 37 , of the system Eqn. 7 is locally asymptotically stable. (a) The
force of the susceptible population converges to the positive equilibrium value
= 280.148. (b) The force of the infected population converges to the
positive equilibrium value = 197.053. (c) The force of the infected
vector converges to the positive equilibrium value = 180.947. (d) Phase
diagram of .
In every instance, the stability of the endemic equilibrium is
comparatively higher than that of the existing literature [21], which strengthens
the model we have created.
6. Conclusions
In this study, positivity and boundedness were verified for the solution of the
dengue transmission dynamic model. The basic reproduction number was chosen
to ensure the model’s stability. It was established that the two delayed models’
endemic equilibrium and illness-free equilibrium both existed. The
steadiness of illness-free equilibrium was determined for
0 in terms of . The steadiness of endemic
equilibrium was determined for = = 0; 0
and = 0; = 0 and 0 in terms of positivity
of . The local asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium occurs
when = = 0. The endemic equilibrium becomes unstable and
undergoes Hopf bifurcation if = 0 and . Similarly, the endemic equilibrium becomes unstable and undergoes
Hopf bifurcation if = 0 and . As a result,
the endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if two delays are
greater than zero. Our numerical simulations clearly demonstrate that, whereas
susceptible and infected population levels are initially unstable, they become
stable as time moves on. The length of the delay has no effect on the stability
of the illness-free equilibrium. The Hopf bifurcation might occur nonetheless,
depending on how much the delay affects the underlying equilibrium’s stability.
Future research will expand on this assessment to examine the effects of a few
control measures built into our model. The best way to control the disease will
be examined as well, taking into account a variety of prevention strategies like
self-defense, medical attention, and insecticide spraying.
Medical Implication of Mathematical Study
In this paper, mosquito-borne dengue fever viruses (DENV) were studied with the
help of two delays. We have observed the following medical implications as
mathematical observations.
Since the basic reproduction number is given by , if 1, the disease
does not survive, and if 1, the disease keeps spreading, the infection rate
will increase. The results are mostly favorable to 1, but it requires good
medical treatment, and the patients are also required to have the place very
clean, free from stagnant water and unwanted materials around the shelter, to
reduce the reproduction of dengue-spreading mosquitoes. Bifurcation in
mathematical theory is used to verify the topological structure of the solutions
of the system of differential equations. This is not a quantitative result, but
it provides a qualitative assessment of whether the system is stable or not after
some transition time. Medically, the bifurcations can be understood as a
visualization of the possibility of a group of infective hosts becoming healthy
or not. By our numerical simulations, we can easily see that initially the
populations of susceptibles and infected were not stable, but as time increased,
they became stable. It clearly shows that, medically, it is possible to bring
society back to being free from dengue.
Other than the basic reproduction number, stability analysis, and bifurcation
analysis, we also like to mention a few points shared by the World Health
Organization (WHO) [28]. DENV is caused by females of the mosquito species
Aedes aegypti and rarely by Albopictus.
Severe dengue is a very deadly disease, as it causes serious illness and death
in some Asian and Latin American countries. It requires management by medical
experts. Though Dengue has various epidemiological structures (DENV-1, DENV-2,
DENV-3 and DENV-4) produced by the Flaviviridae family of viruses, there is a
strong belief that once recovered from this disease, one will have a lifelong
immunity against the same [29].
As we have mentioned, medically, there is no proper treatment for the later
stages of dengue. Therefore, mathematical modeling is useful to provide
qualitative analyses for the chance of recovery for a large infected community.
Availability of Data and Materials
All the datasets and materials from which the entire study was done are
available within the manuscript.
Author Contributions
Conceptualization – PRM, VA, VS; Supervision – VA, VS, DB; Writing – original
draft – PRM, PBD, DB; Numerical results – PRM, VS, PBD; Analysis &
Verification – PRM, VA, DB; Final draft-proof reading – PRM, VA, VS, PBD, DB.
All authors contributed to editorial changes in the manuscript. All authors read
and approved the final manuscript. All authors read and approved the final
manuscript. All authors have participated sufficiently in the work and agreed to
be accountable for all aspects of the work.
Ethics Approval and Consent to Participate
Not applicable.
Acknowledgment
Not applicable.
Funding
This research received no external funding.
Conflict of Interest
The authors declare no conflict of interest. DB is serving as one of the Guest editors of this Journal. We declare that DB had no involvement in the peer review of this article and has no access to information regarding its peer review. Full responsibility for the editorial process for this article was delegated to GP.