IMR Press / FBL / Volume 28 / Issue 6 / DOI: 10.31083/j.fbl2806117
Open Access Original Research
Analysis of Dengue Transmission Dynamic Model by Stability and Hopf Bifurcation with Two-Time Delays
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1 Department of Mathematics, A.V.V.M. Sri Pushpam College (Affiliated to Bharathidasan University, Tiruchirappalli), Poondi, 613 503 Thanjavur, Tamil Nadu, India
2 Department of Mathematics, V.S.B. Engineering College, 639111 Karur, Tamil Nadu, India
3 Department of Mathematics, Sri Eshwar College of Engineering, 641202 Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, India
4 Department of Mathematics, Cankara University, 06530 Ankara, Turkey
5 Institute of Space Sciences, Laboratory of Theoretical Physics, R 76900, Magurele-Bucharest, Romania
6 Department of Natural Sciences, School of Arts and Sciences, Lebanese American University, 11022801 Beirut, Lebanon
*Correspondence: d.prasanthabharathi@gmail.com (Prasantha Bharathi Dhandapani); dumitru.baleanu@gmail.com (Dumitru Baleanu)
Front. Biosci. (Landmark Ed) 2023, 28(6), 117; https://doi.org/10.31083/j.fbl2806117
Submitted: 22 March 2023 | Revised: 26 April 2023 | Accepted: 5 May 2023 | Published: 25 June 2023
Copyright: © 2023 The Author(s). Published by IMR Press.
This is an open access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
Abstract

Background: Mathematical models reflecting the epidemiological dynamics of dengue infection have been discovered dating back to 1970. The four serotypes (DENV-1 to DENV-4) that cause dengue fever are antigenically related but different viruses that are transmitted by mosquitoes. It is a significant global public health issue since 2.5 billion individuals are at risk of contracting the virus. Methods: The purpose of this study is to carefully examine the transmission of dengue with a time delay. A dengue transmission dynamic model with two delays, the standard incidence, loss of immunity, recovery from infectiousness, and partial protection of the human population was developed. Results: Both endemic equilibrium and illness-free equilibrium were examined in terms of the stability theory of delay differential equations. As long as the basic reproduction number (R0) is less than unity, the illness-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable; however, when R0 exceeds unity, the equilibrium becomes unstable. The existence of Hopf bifurcation with delay as a bifurcation parameter and the conditions for endemic equilibrium stability were examined. To validate the theoretical results, numerical simulations were done. Conclusions: The length of the time delay in the dengue transmission epidemic model has no effect on the stability of the illness-free equilibrium. Regardless, Hopf bifurcation may occur depending on how much the delay impacts the stability of the underlying equilibrium. This mathematical modelling is effective for providing qualitative evaluations for the recovery of a huge population of afflicted community members with a time delay.

Keywords
dengue transmission
reproduction number
Hopf bifurcation
time delay
stability
medical implications
1. Introduction

Dengue fever is a critical feverish illness caused by mosquito-borne dengue fever viruses (DENV) [1], which are Flaviviridae flaviviruses. When an infected Aedes aegypti mosquito infects a person, many viruses are transmitted. The transmission of the dengue virus is mostly carried out by humans. A virus-infected mosquito feeds on the blood of a virus-infected person. The virus spreads to tissues such as the duct gland from the mosquito’s gut in 8–10 days. The virus appears to have no negative influence on the mosquito. When a DENV-carrying mosquito bites a human, both the virus and the mosquito’s secretions are injected into the skin. As it circulates throughout the body, it clings to and enters white blood cells, multiplying in them. White blood cells produce a number of signal proteins in response, including interferon, which can lead to symptoms including fever, flu-like symptoms, and excruciating pains.

A variety of organs, including the liver and bone marrow, are regularly damaged by serious infections. They also increase the body’s production of viruses and frequently cause fluid to leak from the circulation into internal organ cavities via the membranes of tiny blood vessels. As a consequence, blood pressure drops to a level where many organs are unable to get enough blood due to decreased blood flow in the blood vessels. The other major effect of dengue fever is bleeding, which was made more likely by bone marrow diseases that decreased the quantity of platelets needed for effective blood coagulation [2].

We provide an associative model that supports the susceptible-infective-recovery-susceptible (SIRS) in the human population and the susceptible-infective (SI) in the vector (mosquito) population while avoiding delays in a trial to examine the dynamics of infection across considerable time periods when susceptible people are born and immunity is lost. Because of vector dynamics, the vector population is typically regarded as being in equilibrium with the human population [3, 4]. The analysis of the delay differential equation in the epidemic model was studied in [5, 6, 7]. The transmission process between humans and mosquitoes takes a long time because of the different parasites’ incubation times [2, 8]. The dynamics of dengue virus transmission with a delayed SIVA model are studied in [9]. Sefidgar et al. [10] discussed the nonlinear system of fractional differential equations that appear in a model of HIV infection of CD4+T cells and proposed the LAM for solving the system. The results showed the effectiveness and efficiency of the method. Wei et al. [11] developed a system for a vector-borne disease with a direct method of transmission, but they also showed how the addition of a latency inside the host-to-vector transmitter term will make the system unstable and cause periodic solutions through Hopf bifurcation.

Omame et al. [12] formulated a mathematical model for the co-infection, COVID-19 and dengue transmission dynamics with optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis. The results showed that the strategy for implementing control against incident dengue infection is the most cost-effective in controlling dengue and COVID-19 co-infection. Omame et al. [13] design a non-integer ordered model for SARS-CoV-2, dengue, and HIV co-dynamics to assess the impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection on the dynamics of dengue and HIV through fractional derivatives. They showed, using numerical simulations, that keeping the spread of SARS-CoV-2 low would have a significant impact on reducing the co-infections of SARS-CoV-2 and dengue or SARS-CoV-2 and HIV. Based on SIRS-SI in the human and vector populations, Wan and Cui [14] presented a model that utilized two latencies for communication between humans and vector populations with the standard incidence rate, loss of immunity, and rate of recovery from infectiousness. To explore the possibility of equilibrium stability and dynamic behavior, Xu and Zhou [15] projected the dynamics of delayed vector-borne transmission with reinfection. An epidemic model with vaccination and numerous time delays is taken into account in [16] along with the stability and Hopf bifurcation analysis. Baleanu and Babak [17] studied a terminal value problem for nonlinear systems of generalized fractional differential equations and formulated a classical operator and a related weighted space with a generalized fractional operator. The results showed the effects of various choices of weight function on modeling with a TVP. Nowadays, many authors do their research on epidemic models [18, 19, 20] with various strategies. To take into consideration the amount of time required for a viral infection to spread to host and vector populations, Yanxia et al. [21] design an associated upgraded vector-borne epidemic model with two latency periods and reinfection. We created a new model using the information in this article and included three new parameters, including loss of immunity, recovery from infectiousness, and partial protection of the human population.

In this paper, the basic reproduction number for the developed model was determined, and the existence of equilibrium was also examined. The aim of the paper is to explore the stability and Hopf bifurcation of a dynamic model of dengue transmission that incorporates two delays. The numerical simulations were described, and the main conceptual outcomes were exhibited. Fig. 1 provides a schematic overview of this model.

Fig. 1.

Schematic diagram of dengue transmission.

2. Model Formulation

The model considers a uniform mix of human and mosquito populations, ensuring that every mosquito bite provides the same possibility of spreading the virus (or transmitting the virus from an infected human). Because mosquitoes cannot recover from infection, their infection period ends when they die, owing to their incredibly short lifespan. As a result, the mosquito population has a relatively low immunity class, and mortality rates are comparable across all categories.

HN(t) represents the whole human population at time t, which is divided into three compartments: susceptible humans SH(t), infectious humans IH(t), and recovered humans RH(t). So, the entire human population is HN(t) = SH(t) + IH(t) + RH(t).

Similarly, VN(t) represents the whole mosquito population at time t, which is divided into two compartments: susceptible vector SV(t) and infectious vector IV(t). So, the entire vector population is VN(t) = SV(t) + IV(t).

Assumptions of the model:

(a) The human and vector total population sizes are considered to be constant. It is expected that new humans will enter the human population at any time at ΩH rate through birth or immigration, and those susceptible mosquitoes will be recruited at a constant rate ΩV.

(b) Depending on the sickness, people shift from one class to another as their health improves. This infusion is not contagious since there is no vertical transmission or immigration of affected persons. When the Aedes aegypti mosquito bites the host, all people get infected, and dengue development begins.

(c) Natural death occurs at a rate of dh and dv [21] (according to their limited life span) for all humans and mosquitoes respectively, regardless of condition.

(d) Individuals who have recovered in the human population acquire partial immunity (σ) or loss of immunity (ρ) [21].

(e) Illness mortality rates for humans and mosquitoes are μh and μv, respectively.

(f) The term e-dhτ1 and e-dvτ2 is the human and mosquito survival rate [22].

(g) Mosquitoes do not die or become infected by infection.

The system of non-linear differential equations for the dengue model is

(1) d S H d t = Ω H - α β h S H ( t - τ 1 ) I V ( t - τ 1 ) e - d h τ 1 - d h S H + θ I H + ρ R H

(2) d I H d t = α β h S H ( t - τ 1 ) I V ( t - τ 1 ) e - d h τ 1 + σ α β h R H I V - ( δ + d h + μ h + θ ) I H

(3) d R H d t = δ I H - σ α β h R H I V - ( d h + ρ ) R H

(4) d S V d t = Ω V - α β V S V ( t - τ 2 ) I H ( t - τ 2 ) e - d v τ 2 - d v S V

(5) d I V d t = α β V S V ( t - τ 2 ) I H ( t - τ 2 ) e - d v τ 2 - ( d v + μ v ) I V

with the following initial conditions:

(6) S H ( ψ ) = S 0 H ( ψ ) , I H ( ψ ) = I 0 H ( ψ ) , R H ( ψ ) = R 0 H ( ψ ) S V ( ψ ) = S 0 V ( ψ ) , I V ( ψ ) = I 0 V ( ψ ) H N ( ψ ) = H 0 N ( ψ ) , V N ( ψ ) = V 0 N ( ψ ) ψ [ - τ , 0 ] , τ = max { τ 1 , τ 2 }

The systems Eqn. 1 to Eqn. 5 is reformulated as

(7) d S H d t = Ω H - α β h S H ( t - τ 1 ) I V ( t - τ 1 ) e - d h τ 1 - d h S H + θ I H + ρ ( Ω H d h - S H - I H ) d I H d t = α β h S H ( t - τ 1 ) I V ( t - τ 1 ) e - d h τ 1 + σ α β h ( Ω H d h - S H - I H ) I V - ( δ + d h + μ h + θ ) I H d I V d t = α β V ( Ω V d v - I V ( t - τ 2 ) ) I H ( t - τ 2 ) e - d v τ 2 - ( d v + μ v ) I V

The parameters of the above system Eqn. 7 is described in Table 1.

Table 1.Parameters of the model.
Parameter Description
ΩH the rate of human recruitment population
ΩV the rate of mosquito recruitment population
βh infection rate from mosquitoes in humans
βv infection rate from humans in mosquitoes
dh the natural death rate of the human population
dv the natural death rate of the vector population
μh the illness-induced death rate of the human population
μv the illness-induced death rate of the mosquito population
α the biting rate of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes per day
θ the individual rate of recovery for a class susceptible to infection
δ recovery rate of the infected human population
σ partial immunity for people who have recovered from the initial illness
ρ individual rate of immune loss in the human population
τ1 extrinsic incubation period of time delay from susceptible to infectious class in populations of humans
τ2 intrinsic incubation period of time delay from susceptible to infectious class in populations of mosquitoes
3. Model Analysis
3.1 Positivity and Boundedness Solution of Dengue Transmission Dynamic Model

The solution of the system Eqn. 7 is usually positive for positive initial values of the data at all times t 0. Especially, the feasible region is C={(SH,IH,IV)R+30SH+IHΩHdh, 0IVΩVdv, SH0, IH0, IV0}.

Theorem 1

The feasible region C={(SH,IH,IV)R+30SH+IHΩHdh, 0IVΩVdv, SH0, IH0, IV0} is positively-invariant for the system Eqn. 7.

Proof

According to [23, 24], it is easy to show that the solution of the Eqns. 1 to 5 with the initial conditions Eqn. 6 is distinct and nonnegative for all t 0, based on the fundamental theory of differential equations.

From Eqns. 1 to 3, the rate of change of whole human population is given by

(8) H N ( t ) = Ω H - d h H N - μ h I H

Without loss of generality, this equation can be expressed as an inequality as

H N ( t ) Ω H - d h H N H N ( t ) Ω H d h + [ H 0 N - ( Ω H d h ) ] exp ( - d h t ) .

Then, limtHN(t)ΩHdh.

Therefore, HN(t) is bounded.

From Eqns. 4 to 5, the rate of change of whole mosquito population is given by

(9) V N ( t ) = Ω V - d v V N - μ v I V

Without loss of generality, this equation can be expressed as an inequality as

V N ( t ) Ω V - d v V N V N ( t ) Ω V d v + [ V 0 N - ( Ω V d v ) ] exp ( - d v t ) .

Then, limtVN(t)ΩVdv.

Therefore, VN(t) is bounded.

By limits theorem, 0SH+IHHN(t)<(ΩHdh)+ϵ holds for all t .

Then for any, ϵ>0, 0SH+IHΩHdh.

Similarly, 0IVΩVdv.

Thus, the region C={(SH,IH,IV)R+30SH+IHΩHdh, 0IVΩVdv, SH0, IH0, IV0} is positively-invariant for the system (Eqn. 7).

3.2 Basic Reproduction Number of the Model

The illness-free equilibrium, E0 = {SH0,IH0,IV0} is the model’s steady state in the lack of infection or illness. All the components of E0 are determined from the first three equations of system Eqn. 7 by putting the RHS equal to zero and assuming that IH0 = 0 and IV0 = 0, where IH0 and IV0 refer to the equilibrium points.

Thus,

(10) E 0 = { Ω H d h + ρ , 0 , 0 }

The next generation matrix technique, as designated by Diekmann et al. [25], was used to determine the basic reproduction number R0.

From system Eqn. 7, the illness states A and the transfer states B are given by

A= [αβhSHIVe-dhτ1αβvSVIHe-dvτ2]and B= [(δ+dh+μh+θ)IH(dv+μv)IV] respectively.

Using Jacobian matrix, the partial derivatives of A and B with respect to IH and IV at the illness-free equilibrium Eqn. 10, are given by

F = [0αβhΩHdh+ρe-dhτ1αβvΩVdve-dvτ20] and V =

[ ( δ + d h + μ h + θ ) 0 0 ( d v + μ v ) ]

Now the next generation matrix FV-1 can be calculated as

(11) F V - 1 = [ 0 α β h Ω H e - d h τ 1 ( d h + ρ ) ( d v + μ v ) α β v Ω V e - d v τ 2 d v ( δ + d h + μ h + θ ) 0 ]

The eigenvalues of Eqn. 11 are used to derive the basic reproduction number, which is

(12) R 0 = α 2 β h β v Ω H Ω V e - d h τ 1 e - d v τ 2 ( d h + ρ ) d v ( d v + μ v ) ( δ + d h + μ h + θ )

3.3 Endemic Equilibrium Existence of the Model

The endemic equilibrium E*, is the model’s stable state in which the illness continues. All the components of E* are obtained from the system Eqn. 7 by framing the right - hand side equal to zero.

Thus,

(13) E * = { S H * , I H * , I V * }

where

SH*= ((ΩHdh)ρ+ΩH+(θ-ρ)IH*)(αβvIH*e-dvτ2+(dv+μv))(dh+ρ)(αβvIH*e-dvτ2+(dv+μv))+(ΩVdv)α2βhβvIH*e-dhτ1e-dvτ2

IV* = (ΩVdv)αβvIH*e-dvτ2αβvIH*e-dvτ2+(dv+μv)

IH* is the positive root of the quadratic equation shown below

(14) X 1 I H * 2 + X 2 I H * + X 3 =  0

where

X1 = αβv2e-2dvτ2[αβh(ΩVdv)e-dhτ1-dh](δ+ρ+dh+μh)+ σα2βhβv(ΩVdv)e-2dvτ2

[αβhβv(ΩVdv)e-dhτ1-(θ+dh)] -αβv2e-2dvτ2[ρ(δ+θ)+μh(ρ+dh)]

X2 = α2βhβv2(ΩVdv)e-2dvτ2[ρ(ΩHdh)e-dhτ1σ((ΩHdh)dh-ΩH)+ e-dhτ1(σαβh(ΩHdh)(ΩVdv)-ΩH)] -αβv(dv+μv)(δ+θ+ρ+dh)[2dh+αβh(ΩVdv)e-dhτ1] e-dvτ2-αβv(dv+μv)e-dvτ2[2μh(ρ+dh)+σαβh(θ+dh)(ΩVdv)] -2αβvρ[dv(δ+θ)+μv(δ+θ+ρ+dh)]e-dvτ2

X3 = α2βhβv(dv+μv)(ρe-dhτ1+σdh)(ΩHdh)(ΩVdv)e-dvτ2+ α2βhβvΩH(ΩVdv)e-dvτ2[e-dhτ1(1+μv)-σ(dv+μv)]-(ρ+dh)(δ+ρ+dh+μh)(dv+μv)2

I1 = -X2+X22-4X1X32X1 and I2 = -X2-X22-4X1X32X1 be the roots of Eqn. 14.

Clearly, we have X1>0, X2>0 and X3>0 if R0<1, and X1>0, X3<0 if R0>1. It is obvious that I1 and I2 are negative roots if R0<1, and that I1 is positive roots if R0>1. The following result is drawn from the relationship between the roots Eqn. 14 and the equilibrium of model Eqn. 7.

“If R0<1, then the system (Eqn. 7) holds illness-free equilibrium E0. If R0>1, then the system (Eqn. 7) holds illness-free equilibrium E0 and an endemic equilibrium E*”.

4. Stability analysis and Hopf Bifurcation

Theorem 2

For τ1, τ2 0, illness-free equilibrium E0 is locally asymptotically stable if R0<1 and is unstable if R0>1.

Proof

The Jacobian matrix of the system Eqn. 7 at E0 is

The characteristic equation of Eqn. 15 is given by

One negative eigen value is λ=-(dh+ρ) and the remaining eigen values of the characteristic equation are

(17) λ 2 + [ ( δ + d h + μ h + θ ) + ( d v + μ v ) ] λ + ( δ + d h + μ h + θ ) ( d v + μ v ) [ 1 - R 0 e - λ ( τ 1 + τ 2 ) ( 1 + σ ρ d h e d h τ 1 e λ τ 1 ) ] = 0

λ 2 + X λ + Y = 0

Where X=(δ+dh+μh+θ)+(dv+μv)

Y = ( δ + d h + μ h + θ ) ( d v + μ v ) [ 1 - R 0 e - λ ( τ 1 + τ 2 ) ( 1 + σ ρ d h e d h τ 1 e λ τ 1 ) ]

The quadratic equation is the same in the ODE case for τ1 = τ2 = 0. In that case, the real component of every eigenvalue of the characteristic equation is already negative. The Hurwitz criterion states that when τ1 = τ2 = 0, the illness-free equilibrium E0 at R0<1 is locally asymptotically stable, however, when R0>1, it is unstable.

Let us first consider R0>1. It is simple to demonstrate that Eqn. 17 has a real positive root. Rearranging Eqn. 17 in the form

Suppose λ is real. From Eqn. 18, the LHS and RHS are denoted by A(λ) and B(λ) respectively. We have A(0) = 0 and limλA(λ) = .

Here, B(λ) is a decreasing function of λ

As a result, Eqn. 17 has a non-negative real root for any τ10 and τ20, and the illness-free equilibrium is destabilizing.

Hence E0 is locally asymptotically stable in system Eqn. 7 if R0<1 and is unstable if R0>1.

Theorem 3

For τ1=τ2 = 0, the endemic equilibrium E* is locally asymptotically stable if R0>1 and is unstable if R0<1.

Proof

The Jacobian matrix of the system Eqn. 7 of E* is

The characteristic equation of Eqn. 19 is given by

(20) λ 3 + k 2 λ 2 + k 1 λ + k 0 + ( l 2 λ 2 + l 1 λ + l 0 ) e - λ τ 1 + ( q 2 λ 2 + q 1 λ + q 0 ) e - λ τ 2 + ( r 1 λ + r 0 ) e - λ ( τ 1 + τ 2 ) = 0

where

When τ1 = 0 and τ2 = 0

The characteristic Eqn. 20 becomes

(21) λ 3 + A 1 λ 2 + A 2 λ + A 3 = 0

where, A1=k2+l2+q2, A2=k1+l1+q1+r1, A3=k0+l0+q0+r0

According to the Routh-Hurwitz criterion, the roots of the characteristic Eqn. 21 does not have a positive real part if and only if the coefficients of Ai are non negative and matrix Hi>0, for i=0, 1, 2, 3. From this A1A2-A3>0.

Hence the endemic equilibrium E* is locally asymptotically stable when τ1 = τ2 = 0.

Theorem 4

For τ1>0 and τ2 = 0, the endemic equilibrium E* is locally asymptotically stable if R0>1 and is unstable if R0<1 [26, 27].

Proof

When τ1>0 and τ2=0, the characteristic Eqn. 20 becomes

(22) λ 3 + B 1 λ 2 + B 2 λ + B 3 + ( C 1 λ 2 + C 2 λ + C 3 ) e - λ τ 1 = 0

where B1=k2+q2, B2=k1+q1, B3=k0+q0, C1=l2, C2=l1+r1 and C3=l0+r0

Suppose that λ=iω0, ω0>0 then the Eqn. 22 becomes

(23) B 1 ω 0 2 - B 3 = ( C 3 - C 1 ω 0 2 ) cos ω 0 τ 1 + C 2 ω 0 sin ω 0 τ 1 ω 0 3 - B 2 ω 0 = - ( C 3 - C 1 ω 0 2 ) sin ω 0 τ 1 + C 2 ω 0 cos ω 0 τ 1

It follows that

(24) ω 0 6 + ( B 1 2 - 2 B 2 - C 1 2 ) ω 0 4 + ( B 2 2 - C 2 2 - 2 B 3 B 1 + 2 C 3 C 1 ) ω 0 2 + B 3 2 - C 3 2 = 0

Denote in z=ω02 in Eqn. 24

(25) g ( z ) = z 3 + ( B 1 2 - 2 B 2 - C 1 2 ) z 2 + ( B 2 - 2 C 2 2 - 2 B 3 B 1 + 2 C 3 C 1 ) z + ( B 3 - 2 C 3 2 ) = 0

(26) g ( z ) = z 3 + h 3 z 2 + h 2 z + h 1 = 0

where h3=B12-2B2-C12, h2=B22-C22-2B3B1+2C3C1, h1=B32-C32

It is easy to get that g(z)= 3z2+2h3z+h2=0 has two roots z1=(-h3+h32-3h2)3 and z2=(-h3-h32-3h2)3

Clearly, if h10, h20 and h30, then Eqn. 26 has a negative real root. As a result, Eqn. 22 has negative real parts and has no pure imaginary roots.

Suppose that Eqn. 26 has positive root ω0. A pair of imaginary roots (±iω0), appear in the characteristic Eqn. 22. Let λ(τ1) = η(τ1)+iω0(τ1) be the eigenvalues Eqn. 22 for a certain starting value of the bifurcation parameter τ1 then we have η(τ1kn)=0, ω0(τ1kn)=ω0.

Denote τ1kn = θ1+2nπω0k, n = 0, 1, 2, …. Where θ1[0, 2π]

From Eqn. 23, we get

sin (θ1) = ω05C1+ω03(B1C2-C3-C1B2)+ω0(C3B2-B3C2)(C3-C1ω02)2+C22ω02

cos (θ1) = -ω04(B1C1-C2)+ω02(C2B2-B1C3-B3C1)+B3C3(C3-C1ω02)2+C22ω02

The following transversality condition also verified.

ddτ1Re(λ(τ))τ=τ1=ddτ1η(τ)|τ=τ1>0 holds.

By continuity, when τ1>τ1* and the real part of λ(τ1) turns positive, the steady state is unstable. Furthermore, the Hopf bifurcation occurs when τ1 reaches the crucial value in τ1* [23]. When τ2 = 0, τ1>τ2, the equilibrium E* is asymptotically stable. However, if τ1* remains in a certain right neighbourhood of τ1, the equilibrium E* becomes unstable.

Hence, the Hopf bifurcation occurs when τ1*=τ1.

Theorem 5

For τ1 = 0 and τ2>0, the endemic equilibrium E* is locally asymptotically stable if R0>1 and is unstable if R0<1. Hopf bifurcation occurs when τ2=τ2*, at the equilibrium E* of the system Eqn. 7.

Proof

When τ1=0 and τ2>0, the characteristic Eqn. 20 becomes

(27) λ 3 + D 1 λ 2 + D 2 λ + D 3 + ( E 1 λ 2 + E 2 λ + E 3 ) e - λ τ 2 = 0

where D1=k2+l2, D2=k1+l1, D3=k0+l0, E1=q2, E2=q1+r1 and E3=q0+r0

Suppose that λ=iω1, ω1>0 then the Eqn. 27 becomes

(28) D 1 ω 1 2 - D 3 = ( E 3 - E 1 ω 1 2 ) cos ω 1 τ 2 + E 2 ω 1 sin ω 1 τ 2 ω 1 3 - D 2 ω 1 = - ( E 3 - E 1 ω 1 2 ) sin ω 1 τ 2 + E 2 ω 1 cos ω 1 τ 2

It follows that

(29) ω 1 6 + ( D 1 2 - 2 D 2 - E 1 2 ) ω 1 4 + ( D 2 2 - E 2 2 - 2 D 3 D 1 + 2 E 3 E 1 ) ω 1 2 + D 3 2 - E 3 2 = 0

Denote z=ω12 in Eqn. 29

(30) f ( z ) = z 3 + ( D 1 2 - 2 D 2 - E 1 2 ) z 2 + ( D 2 2 - E 2 2 - 2 D 3 D 1 + 2 E 3 E 1 ) z + ( D 3 2 - E 3 2 ) = 0

Let j3=D12-2D2-E12,j2=D2-2E22-2D3D1+2E3E1,j1=(D3-2E32) then Eqn. 30 is

(31) f ( z ) = z 3 + j 3 z 2 + j 2 z + j 1 = 0

It is easy to get that f(z)= 3z2+2j3z+j2=0 has two roots z1 = (-j3+j32-3j2)3 and z2 = (-j3-j32-3j2)3

Clearly, if j10, j20 and j30, then Eqn. 31 has negative real roots. Hence, Eqn. 27 has negative real parts and does not have any pure imaginary roots.

If we assume that Eqn. 31, z1, z2 and z3 are three positive roots, then ω1 = z1, ω2 = z2 and ω3 = z3 are three positive numbers.

From Eqn. 28

cos ω1τ2 = (D1ω12-D3)(E3-E1ω12)+E2ω1(ω13-D2ω1)(E3-E1ω12)2+E22ω12

Denote

τ 2 k n = 1 ω 1 k arccos { ( D 1 ω 1 2 - D 3 ) ( E 3 - E 1 ω 1 2 ) + E 2 ω 1 ( ω 1 - 3 D 2 ω 1 ) ( E 3 - E 1 ω 1 2 ) 2 + E 2 ω 1 2 2 } + 2 n π ω 1 k

and τ2* = min1kmτ2k(0), ω1=ωi, i=1, 2, 3,.m

where ω1 is corresponds to τ2*.

Let λ(τ2) = η(τ2)+iω1(τ2) be the eigenvalues of the characteristic Eqn. 27 satisfying η(τ2kn)=0, ω1(τ2kn)=ω1.

From Eqn. 27, we get (dλdτ2)-1 = P1+iP2P3+iP4

where,

Therefore, Re (dλdτ2)-1|λ=iω0 = P1P3+P2P4P32+P42

If P1P3+P2P40 then Re (dλdτ2)-1|λ=iω00 hold.

If τ1=0 and P1P3+P2P40 the E* is asymptotically stable when τ2[0,τ2*).

Hence, the Hopf bifurcation occurs when τ2*=τ2.

5. Numerical Simulations

Theorems 2, 3, 4, and 5 explore the stability of an endemic equilibrium, which is important from an epidemiological perspective. The parameter values of the model is showed in Table 2 (Ref. [3, 21]).

Table 2.Parameter and values of the model.
Parameter Value Source
𝛀𝑯 9 Yanxia et al. [21]
𝛀𝑽 10 Yanxia et al. [21]
𝜷𝒉 0.002 Yanxia et al. [21]
𝜷𝒗 0.005 Yanxia et al. [21]
𝒅𝒉 0.01 Yanxia et al. [21]
𝒅𝒗 0.05 Yanxia et al. [21]
𝝁𝒉 0.05 Hui, Jing-An [3]
𝝁𝒗 0.1 Hui, Jing-An [3]
𝜶 0.3 Yanxia et al. [21]
𝜽 0.08 Hui, Jing-An [3]
𝜹 0.2 Assumed
𝝈 0.8 Yanxia et al. [21]
𝝆 0.02 Assumed

By Theorem 3, when , τ1=τ2=0 the stability of the endemic equilibrium E* (267.781, 210.142, 196.792) is converging towards being locally asymptotically stable (Fig. 2). It is tougher to control the disease as R0=3.17647>1 and dengue fever persists in both human and vector populations.

Fig. 2.

When τ𝟏 = τ𝟐 = 0, E* of the system Eqn. 7 is locally asymptotically stable. (a) The force of the susceptible population converges to the positive equilibrium value SH* = 267.781. (b) The force of the infected population converges to the positive equilibrium value IH* = 210.142. (c) The force of the infected vector converges to the positive equilibrium value IV* = 196.792. (d) Phase diagram of E*.

When τ1>0, τ2>0, the stability of the endemic equilibrium E* (339.886, 180.022, 183.872) is converging towards locally asymptotically stable (Fig. 3). As R0=0.499459<1 is obtained, dengue fever disappears in both the human and vector populations, making it simpler to stop the disease’s spread.

Fig. 3.

When τ𝟏>0 and τ𝟐>0, E* of the system Eqn. 7 is locally asymptotically stable. (a) The force of the susceptible population converges to the positive equilibrium value SH* = 339.886. (b) The force of the infected population converges to the positive equilibrium value IH* = 180.022. (c) The force of the infected vector converges to the positive equilibrium value IV* = 183.872. (d) Phase diagram of E*.

By Theorem 4, if τ1 = 32.8 and τ2 = 0, the stability of the endemic equilibrium E* (333.986, 188.115, 196.753) is converging towards being locally asymptotically stable (Fig. 4). Dengue fever is more difficult to control as R0=2.28821>1 and the human and vector populations remain infected. If τ1>32.8 and τ2 = 0, the stability of the endemic equilibrium E* is diverging towards instability and its E* loses stability as τ1 passes through τ1*(32.9), leading to a Hopf bifurcation (Fig. 5).

Fig. 4.

When τ𝟏 = 32.8 >τ𝟏* and τ𝟐 = 0, E* of the system Eqn. 7 is locally asymptotically stable. (a) The force of the susceptible population converges to the positive equilibrium value SH* = 333.986. (b) The force of the infected population converges to the positive equilibrium value IH* = 188.115. (c) The force of the infected vector converges to the positive equilibrium value IV* = 196.753. (d) Phase diagram of E*.

Fig. 5.

𝑬* of the system Eqn. 7 is unstable and a Hopf bifurcation occurring in τ𝟏=𝟑𝟑>τ𝟏* and τ𝟐=𝟎. (a) The force of the susceptible population diverges to the positive equilibrium. (b) The force of the infected population diverges to the positive equilibrium. (c) The force of the infected vector diverges to the positive equilibrium. (d) Phase diagram of E*.

By Theorem 5, if τ1 = 0 and τ2 <36.9, the stability of the endemic equilibrium E* is diverging towards instability, resulting in a bifurcation when τ2 passes upon τ2* (36.8) (Fig. 6). If τ1 = 0 and τ2 = 37, the stability of the endemic equilibrium E* (280.148, 197.053, 180.947) is converging towards being locally asymptotically stable (Fig. 7). As R0=0.499459<1 is obtained, dengue fever disappears in both human and vector populations, making it simpler to stop the disease’s spread.

Fig. 6.

When τ𝟏 = 0 and τ𝟐 = 36 <τ𝟐*, the system Eqn. 7 is unstable and a Hopf bifurcation occurring. (a) The force of the susceptible population diverges to the positive equilibrium. (b) The force of the infected population diverges to the positive equilibrium. (c) The force of the infected vector diverges to the positive equilibrium. (d) Phase diagram of E*.

Fig. 7.

When τ𝟏 = 0 and τ𝟐 = 37 >τ𝟐*, E* of the system Eqn. 7 is locally asymptotically stable. (a) The force of the susceptible population converges to the positive equilibrium value SH* = 280.148. (b) The force of the infected population converges to the positive equilibrium value IH* = 197.053. (c) The force of the infected vector converges to the positive equilibrium value IV* = 180.947. (d) Phase diagram of E*.

In every instance, the stability of the endemic equilibrium E* is comparatively higher than that of the existing literature [21], which strengthens the model we have created.

6. Conclusions

In this study, positivity and boundedness were verified for the solution of the dengue transmission dynamic model. The basic reproduction number R0 was chosen to ensure the model’s stability. It was established that the two delayed models’ endemic equilibrium E* and illness-free equilibrium E0 both existed. The steadiness of illness-free equilibrium was determined for τ1,τ2 0 in terms of R0. The steadiness of endemic equilibrium was determined for τ1 = τ2 = 0; τ1>0 and τ2 = 0; τ1 = 0 and τ2>0 in terms of positivity of R0. The local asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium E* occurs when τ1 = τ2 = 0. The endemic equilibrium becomes unstable and undergoes Hopf bifurcation if τ2 = 0 and τ1>τ1*. Similarly, the endemic equilibrium becomes unstable and undergoes Hopf bifurcation if τ1 = 0 and τ2<τ2*. As a result, the endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if two delays are greater than zero. Our numerical simulations clearly demonstrate that, whereas susceptible and infected population levels are initially unstable, they become stable as time moves on. The length of the delay has no effect on the stability of the illness-free equilibrium. The Hopf bifurcation might occur nonetheless, depending on how much the delay affects the underlying equilibrium’s stability. Future research will expand on this assessment to examine the effects of a few control measures built into our model. The best way to control the disease will be examined as well, taking into account a variety of prevention strategies like self-defense, medical attention, and insecticide spraying.

Medical Implication of Mathematical Study

In this paper, mosquito-borne dengue fever viruses (DENV) were studied with the help of two delays. We have observed the following medical implications as mathematical observations.

Since the basic reproduction number is given by R0, if R0 <1, the disease does not survive, and if R0 >1, the disease keeps spreading, the infection rate will increase. The results are mostly favorable to R0 >1, but it requires good medical treatment, and the patients are also required to have the place very clean, free from stagnant water and unwanted materials around the shelter, to reduce the reproduction of dengue-spreading mosquitoes. Bifurcation in mathematical theory is used to verify the topological structure of the solutions of the system of differential equations. This is not a quantitative result, but it provides a qualitative assessment of whether the system is stable or not after some transition time. Medically, the bifurcations can be understood as a visualization of the possibility of a group of infective hosts becoming healthy or not. By our numerical simulations, we can easily see that initially the populations of susceptibles and infected were not stable, but as time increased, they became stable. It clearly shows that, medically, it is possible to bring society back to being free from dengue.

Other than the basic reproduction number, stability analysis, and bifurcation analysis, we also like to mention a few points shared by the World Health Organization (WHO) [28]. DENV is caused by females of the mosquito species Aedes aegypti and rarely by Albopictus.

Severe dengue is a very deadly disease, as it causes serious illness and death in some Asian and Latin American countries. It requires management by medical experts. Though Dengue has various epidemiological structures (DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3 and DENV-4) produced by the Flaviviridae family of viruses, there is a strong belief that once recovered from this disease, one will have a lifelong immunity against the same [29].

As we have mentioned, medically, there is no proper treatment for the later stages of dengue. Therefore, mathematical modeling is useful to provide qualitative analyses for the chance of recovery for a large infected community.

Availability of Data and Materials

All the datasets and materials from which the entire study was done are available within the manuscript.

Author Contributions

Conceptualization – PRM, VA, VS; Supervision – VA, VS, DB; Writing – original draft – PRM, PBD, DB; Numerical results – PRM, VS, PBD; Analysis & Verification – PRM, VA, DB; Final draft-proof reading – PRM, VA, VS, PBD, DB. All authors contributed to editorial changes in the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript. All authors have participated sufficiently in the work and agreed to be accountable for all aspects of the work.

Ethics Approval and Consent to Participate

Not applicable.

Acknowledgment

Not applicable.

Funding

This research received no external funding.

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest. DB is serving as one of the Guest editors of this Journal. We declare that DB had no involvement in the peer review of this article and has no access to information regarding its peer review. Full responsibility for the editorial process for this article was delegated to GP.

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