- Academic Editors
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Background: To develop and validate a nomogram prediction model for
assessing the risk of major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events
(MACCE) in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) and heart failure
with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) within one year of discharge.
Methods: We enrolled 828 patients with NVAF and HFpEF from May 2017 to
March 2022 in Zhongda Hospital as the training cohort, and 564 patients with NVAF
and HFpEF in Taizhou People’s Hospital between August 2018 and March 2022 as the
validation cohort. A total of 35 clinical features, including baseline
characteristics, past medical records, and detection index, were used to create a
prediction model for MACCE risk. The optimized model was verified in the
validation cohort. Calibration plots, the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and decision
curve analyses (DCA) were utilized to assess the accuracy and clinical efficacy
of the nomogram. Results: MACCE occurred in 23.1% of all patients
within one year of discharge. The nomogram identified several independent risk
factors for MACCE, including atrial fibrillation duration